Mitsuru Mukaigawara, M.D., M.P.P., is a physician-political scientist. He is a Ph.D. candidate in Government and an A.M. candidate in Statistics at Harvard University, as well as the Arleen Carlson and Edna Nelson Graduate Fellow at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study.
The containment trap:
How efforts to contain epidemics intensify civil conflict
Job Market Paper
Frontier plagues, or severe epidemics in low-capacity regions, generate a containment trap: efforts to control epidemics intensify civil conflict. Using microlevel data and a spatiotemporal causal inference design, I show that frontier plagues significantly increase civilian targeting in outbreak epicenters.
Available upon request
Spatiotemporal causal inference with arbitrary spillover & carryover effects
A desire to demonstrate resolve motivates insurgent attacks more than revenge or grievance in Iraq.
Survey estimates of wartime mortality
Accounting for political and strategic incentives in surveys produces more accurate estimates of wartime mortality.
Diplomacy by committee
In diplomacy, groups rely more on first impressions and update less from signals than individuals.
Mitsuru Mukaigawara has been named the Arleen Carlson and Edna Nelson Graduate Fellow at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study.
Recent Publications
The containment trap
Recent Awards and Honors
Radcliffe Fellowship
Weatherhead Dissertation Writing Grant
Merit Award Fellowship
Hans J. Morgenthau Fellowship